Without having met Elon, I think he’s undeniably pretty smart (and I think a few counter-examples shown above here are irrelevant, everyone makes mistakes at times).
Firstly, Elon’s preference for physics-based first-principles thinking is part of it. Whether it’s can we make an electric jet? OR Are reusable rockets feasible? the approach has to be first principles-based otherwise the answer will often be ‘no’. Why would anyone want to think any other way? There’s a price to be paid: you will be labeled a ‘dreamer/idealist’. (Confession: I’m a physicist too and have been accused of these wonderful sins).
Secondly, Elon’s bookishness is another ingredient. I learned SO much from books in the old days. A smart techy person who is motivated by wanting to fix or innovate things (like the world) can rapidly reach a professional level in any subject in a TENTH the time someone doing a course would. It’s a fact. I learned to design, build, and MACHINE-CODE program microprocessors as a 15-year-old from books and then did it myself and learned only a handful more formal tidbits 3–5 years later in my electronics engineering/physics degree. It’s all about motivation and Elon Musk has it.
Thirdly, what Musk is really good at is building solutions to supposedly next-generation problems by
knitting together (tinkering) existing technologies so that he can make it happen. It’s classic systems engineering/black-boxing.
And, finally, sure, he’s good at getting people to believe in him SO that he can make it happen. Charisma. Maybe awkward, but he’s got it.
Take SpaceX: it really was a no-brainer that we should be able to land 1st stages. Every technologist worth his socks would have agreed this makes sense when they considered it on its merit. But almost nobody (apart from the McDonald Douglas Delta guys . . and Tintin’s Prof Calculus) were thinking that way. Elon conceived or copied the concept and put the pieces together: reusable 1st stage = modern avionics + throttle-able engines + aero-fins + landing legs.
Together with having the drive & the opportunity (= the cash/luck) and you have Elon Musk:
Young Elon Musk = motivation + first-principles + bookishness + tinkering + charisma
Today’s Elon Musk = Young Elon Musk + money (opportunity)
Musk is a product visionary, understanding how good a revolutionary new product (the Tesla Model S) needed to be for consumer acceptance and he was relentless at making it such; when it came out, Consumer Reports magazine said it may be the best car ever built. I’ve owned two Teslas and I agree.
And, simultaneously, why not start a private space company, an even crazier idea. How hard could it be to develop the AI to land a reusable booster rocket vertically on a floating platform smaller than a parking lot when NATION STATES have tried to do it and failed? Once again, relentless vision and the refusal to fail.
Yes, he didn’t personally engineer the Tesla, he didn’t personally design the SpaceX rockets, but he has the vision, tenacity, and engineering smarts to take on impossible tasks and succeed where most would fail. That takes far more than money or luck.
I’ve come across plenty of academics that couldn’t engineer their way out of a paper bag. Many people who start with their daddy’s millions are lucky to see any real success. Mr. Musk’s success comes from an uncanny ability to see the future ahead of others, extreme intelligence, relentless tenacity, and a finite refusal to put out an inferior product or service.
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